Despite a dire economic situation and early predictions of a difficult market, the 2009 worldwide notebook market proved to be surprisingly robust, with unit shipments ending up nearly 16 percent. Looking forward, we expect this level of mid-teen growth rates to continue throughout the five-year forecast period (2009 2013). More importantly, notebooks are taking a larger share of the total PC market; they hit 57 percent in 2009 and are expected to reach 70 percent by 2013. As a result, the focus on all notebook-related elements, including batteries, continues to grow.
The following questions were posed by Boston-Power, Inc. to Bob O'Donnell, program vice president of IDC's Clients and Displays research, on behalf of Boston-Power's customers.
Q. What are the developing notebook PC usage models that have a direct impact on battery requirements?
A. The worldwide PC industry went through a long-anticipated and yet critical milestone in its history in 2009 when notebook shipments surpassed desktop shipments for the first time. Computer users of all types have found the value of having a portable device that frees them from the tyranny of the power socket essential to their daily needs. At the same time, they have also become more sensitive to the potential frustrations associated with devices that rely on batteries for power — including limited usage time and lengthy recharge cycles.
Recent IDC surveys show that notebook buyers now rank battery life, or runtime, as the fourth most important characteristic when purchasing notebooks. In addition, many vendors offer much more sophisticated software tools for actively monitoring battery life and ensuring that users can get every minute available to them. Many of these tools also show the battery's potential lifetime, or service life, providing well-needed insight into an often mysterious subject.
At the same time, the economic crisis has impacted the intended and actual lifetimes of notebooks. IDC research has shown that business buyers are extending lifetimes of notebooks from three to nearly four years and consumers are following similar patterns. This, in turn, has brought more focus to additional costs associated with longer lifetimes, including buying battery replacements (because many standard notebook batteries last for only up to two years of typical use) as well as warranty and repair prices. The result is that both consumer and professional notebook buyers are increasingly focused on the issues related to their notebook batteries.
Q. What factors are important when considering a notebook battery?
A. While most first-time notebook buyers give little thought to battery specifications, anyone who has owned or even used a notebook on a semi-regular basis knows how critical it is to consider the battery characteristics of a given notebook. Battery runtime, of course, is the most important metric used to quantify the capabilities of a given notebook battery in a specific system. However, the benchmarks used to measure battery runtime are increasingly looked upon with skepticism by many buyers as they discover that a notebook touted as offering five hours often provides only about half that amount in real-world use and declines over time from that figure. IDC research shows that consumers are starting to demand four to five hours of "real" battery runtime (with the screen remaining on and wireless networking enabled) from their notebooks. Many business buyers want even more, although most recognize the inevitable size and weight trade-offs associated with larger batteries and longer runtimes.
In addition to battery runtime, more and more buyers are starting to look at overall battery service life, particularly as notebook lifetimes continue to increase. Battery service life refers to the ability of the battery to deliver a consistent, "like-new" runtime for multiple years or for the life of the notebook. This factor isn't discussed in great detail right now by most vendors, but we expect it will be an increasingly important consideration over time. Long-life batteries offer notebook manufacturers the potential to provide longer warranties (three-plus years) for their entire notebook system, an important differentiating factor in the sales process.
Another factor to consider when comparing notebook batteries is the speed with which the battery can be recharged to a usable level. The lack of specific industry standards around this subject can make it a bit difficult to do direct comparisons, but regular notebook users can unquestionably appreciate being able to, for example, achieve a 50 percent (or greater) charge during a brief airport layover when access to an outlet is limited to 15 or 20 minutes. This fast charging capability enables a much more productive mobile computing experience and can save people from having to purchase and carry around a spare battery.
Q. Although initial battery runtimes seem to be increasing, how much demonstrable benefit has this trend produced for users?
A. As notebook usage has become more widespread and many buyers are now on their second, third, or even fourth notebook, the level of sophistication and understanding in terms of battery-related issues has also grown. For example, while notebook system power efficiency has improved tremendously over the past few years, driving up the typical runtimes for standard six- and nine-cell notebook batteries, some users have started to notice that the long initial runtimes they enjoyed with their new notebook start to shorten within a few months of regular use.
While battery fade is inevitable, there is a difference between the battery technologies that enable long initial runtimes but faster fade and those that deliver a consistent runtime for an extended period of time, measured in years. With businesses and consumers extending the lifetimes of their notebooks, a battery providing a consistent runtime over an extended period of time could have a clear technical and economical advantage over batteries that do not.
Q. What would the impact be on consumer and commercial notebook usage models if it were possible to recharge a notebook battery fully in less than an hour? Or get to 80 percent capacity in 30 minutes?
A. For sophisticated notebook users, the ideal combination of battery capabilities would integrate long runtimes, long service life, and short charging cycles. The ability to quickly bring a dead or nearly depleted battery back to a useful state is particularly important for business notebook users, who often only have a chance to "sip" at the power outlet during meetings or between destinations. At the same time, a quick charge without a consistent long runtime is of limited use for many people, as the demand for extended usage away from an outlet is clearly the most important factor for the vast majority of notebook users, even after years of use.
Q. How will evolving battery capabilities impact future notebook usage and designs?
A. Notebook form factors continue to evolve, with an increasing emphasis on very thin designs. Part of the challenge in creating those designs has often been the battery, but new developments in battery technology are now enabling very thin notebooks with reasonable to very good battery runtimes. Some notebook manufacturers have created thinner, wider designs, while others have moved to embedded batteries that more effectively use the available space inside the notebook and are enabled by batteries that last the lifetime of the notebook. In addition, the continued development of more sophisticated power management utilities is also enabling PC notebook vendors to offer their customers a better overall battery experience.
Bob O'Donnell, IDC's program vice president of Clients and Displays research, has a lengthy, multifaceted career in the computer and high-tech industry. O'Donnell is responsible for tracking the latest and most important hardware developments that impact PCs, notebooks, thin clients, and other computing devices, as well as the ODM production of notebooks. He also leads IDC's display research program, where he tracks the sales and technology trends affecting the worldwide market for computer televisions, monitors, projectors, and related technologies, as well as the market for large LCD panels and ODM production of monitors and TVs.
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